Project Description

This research project examined the rise of right-wing populist and far-right parties across Europe and investigates how mainstream parties can respond to this challenge. Focusing on Germany, the project explores strategied that moderate parties might use to retain or win back voters from these populist challengers. The methodology included a panel survey experiment during the 2021 German federal election and a large-scale survey experiment in Germany. The project’s objective was to identify effective strategies for mainstream parties to counteract the growing influence of right-wing populism, which poses a significant threat to the liberal democratic order.

Research Questions

In this project, we investigated which strategies mainstream parties can employ in order to win back voters from far right and populist parties.

Research Approach

The project consisted of two studies:

• Study 1: We conducted a panel survey experiment during the 2021 German federal election in order to shed light on how strategic emphasis of so-called “wedge issues” can help to win back voters from right-wing populist parties. The first wave allowed us to identify wedge issues that the mainstream CDU/CSU can stress to cross-cut the anti-immigration vote. The second wave raised the salience of these issues by manipulating the perceived issue agenda of the CDU/CSU using hypothetical campaign posters.

• Study 2: We tested the effect of four communication strategies to populist rhetoric: highlighting the role of mainstream parties in representing citizen interests, emphasizing the performance of mainstream parties, revealing the self-interest of populists and appealing to alternative identities. We tested the effect of these strategies through a large-scale survey experiment that we fielded among more than 24,000 respondents in Germany by relying on real-world messages of mainstream parties identified in social media, manifestos and press releases of political parties.

Relation to the Liberal Script

The rise of populist parties and candidates all over Europe and beyond marks a major challenge to the liberal script. The increasing electoral success of right-wing populist parties poses a danger to democracy as they often undermine democratic norms and institutions by promoting authoritarian practices and curtailing civil liberties. They frequently incite divisive rhetoric, targeting minority groups and fostering social polarisation, which can destabilise societal cohesion. Additionally, their anti-establishment stance can erode trust in traditional democratic processes and institutions, leading to weakened governance and potential democratic backsliding. It is therefore of utmost importance to identify effective counter strategies.

Core Findings

This project arrived at two major findings:

• Study 1: Mainstream parties can win back voters from far-right parties by emphasizing wedge issues on which anti-immigration voters disagree with far-right parties.

• Study 2: Mainstream parties can effectively counter populist parties by exposing the self-interest of populists.

Academic Innovations

The project produced a large-scale online survey panel and conducted a survey experiment for the second wave. By incorporating real-world messages from political parties, the research offers an empirically grounded examination of how parties can counteract populist rhetoric. This mixed methodology presents an alternative to analyse mainstream parties' strategic responses to right-wing populist and far-right challenges in Europe.

Publications

Spoon, Jae-Jae / Klüver, Heike 2020: Responding to far right challengers. Does accommodation pay off?, Journal of European Public Policy 27(2): 273-291.

Haas, Violeta I. / Stoetzer, Lukas F. / Schleiter, Petra / Klüver, Heike 2023: Can Wedge Strategies by Mainstream Parties Cross-Cut the Anti-Immigration Far Right Vote?, Electoral Studies 83: 1-8.