Beyond Energy Rents: Russia’s Conflicting Growth Strategies, Constrained Welfare State, and a Non-Dynamic Growth Regime
Katharina Bluhm, Ewa Aleksandra Dąbrowska, Martin Brand – 2025
This chapter discusses Russia’s growth strategies over the past two decades, focusing on the reliance on energy revenues and the interaction with social policies. It identifies two main strategies: a supply-side approach aimed at fostering a favorable business climate for foreign investment and a demand-led strategy that prioritized the stimulation of domestic consumption and the rebuilding of domestic value chains. Despite these efforts, Russia’s growth regime, characterized by high resource dependence and weak innovation, failed to achieve dynamic growth. Instead, a non-dynamic, resource-exporting growth regime characterized by limited industrial diversification and state-led capitalism emerged. The chapter examines how this regime was shaped by conflicting policies, power struggles, and external factors, contributing to Russia’s economic resilience but inhibiting sustained innovation-based growth. Social policies, particularly welfare, were key to the regime’s stability, but political and economic shifts in the context of the attack on Ukraine further intensified state intervention and militarization of the economy.