The number and quality of liberal democracies around the world are declining; right-wing populists are gaining popularity, and authoritarian forces are on the rise. Has liberal democracy as a political and social model reached its end? Public opinion tells a different story. Data from 60,000 respondents in 30 countries show that large majorities prefer to live in a democracy rather than an autocracy — and that the notion of a deeply divided society is largely unfounded. Most people support liberal-democratic values, and even on contentious issues, polarization is far less pronounced than public discourse suggests.

To what extent do politics and the media amplify the impression of a polarized society and a growing spread of authoritarian attitudes? Who benefits when people feel alienated, when majorities perceive themselves as minorities, and when democracy is seen as having failed? The study’s findings offer a corrective to the dominant narrative: polarizing politics do not necessarily reflect a polarized public — and loud voices do not necessarily represent the majority. Yet both can derail democracy. Division, after all, is a well-tested populist tool.

Karoline Estermann studies the extent to which support for liberal democracy persists today, as right-wing populist and authoritarian movements gain influence worldwide. She is a doctoral researcher at the Cluster of Excellence Contestations of the Liberal Script (SCRIPTS) at Freie Universität Berlin, where she analyses data from the study Public Attitudes towards the Liberal Script (PALS), based on surveys of around 60,000 people in 30 countries. Previously, she worked at the Institute of Political Science and Sociology at the University of Bonn, focusing on quantitative methodology. She holds a B.A. in Journalism and an M.A. in Sociology with an emphasis on law and empirical social research.